The Rams and Chargers wrap up the preseason tonight at SoFi Stadium.
The Chargers are laying 3.5, the total sits at 38.5, and I'm taking the points with the Rams.
Rams +3.5 at the Chargers
Sean McVay does not play his starters in the preseason.
The Rams keep winning anyway.
They opened with a 20-12 win over Kansas City and followed that up by shutting out New Orleans 34-0. They are 2-0 this preseason, and they have done it almost entirely with the back half of the roster.
That is a big part of why I like them again tonight.
It is also not just a two-game thing.
The Rams have covered eight straight preseason games, all eight as underdogs, and they are 14-6 against the spread following a preseason win.
McVay has consistently gotten good football out of his depth players in August, and we are seeing it again this year.
The biggest edge for me tonight comes at quarterback once the starters are done.
Matthew Stafford is not playing, so the Rams have spent the preseason getting long looks at Stetson Bennett IV and Ty Simpson.
Simpson has been excellent.
He has completed 29 of 37 passes for 263 yards and two touchdowns.
Bennett is 23 of 37 for 219 yards and has also gotten plenty of work with the second team.
McVay has already said Simpson will play extensively tonight, and with roster cutdowns coming, these snaps matter.
Once Justin Herbert comes out, this game is going to be decided by the depth chart.
That is where I want the Rams.
| QB | Comp/Att | Comp % | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Simpson (LAR) | 29/37 | 78.4% | 263 | 2 |
| Stetson Bennett IV (LAR) | 23/37 | 62.2% | 219 | 0 |
| Trey Lance (LAC) | 22/36 | 61.1% | 237 | 0 |
| DJ Uiagalelei (LAC) | 13/24 | 54.2% | 200 | 2 |
The Rams backup quarterbacks have combined to complete 52 of 74 passes this preseason.
That is 70.3 percent.
The Chargers backups are 35 of 60, or 58.3 percent.
That is a pretty significant gap.
Trey Lance has completed just 61.1 percent of his passes and has not thrown a touchdown this preseason.
DJ Uiagalelei has been worse from an accuracy standpoint, completing only 54.2 percent of his throws.
That is the part of this matchup I keep coming back to.
Lance has had plenty of opportunities over the last few years, and the accuracy still has not developed. Uiagalelei has struggled to consistently complete passes this preseason too.
If most of this game falls on Lance and Uiagalelei, I want the Rams on the other side.
There is also some ugly preseason history for the Chargers.
They have lost 13 of their last 15 preseason home games and have covered only three times during that stretch.
They are also 1-6 against the spread in their last seven preseason games as a favorite.
I am not betting the Rams because of those trends, but they certainly do not hurt when they line up with what we are already seeing on the field.
Then there is the number.
The total is only 38.5.
Getting 3.5 points matters in a game expected to stay this low scoring. A field goal loss still gets us there, and I think the Rams have the better depth once this game turns over to the backups.
They have been the better preseason team, I trust their quarterback room more, and McVay continues to get a lot out of this roster in August.
I'll take the points.
Today's Card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams +3.5 | -118 | 1.18u | 1.00u | 10:00 ET |
Total risk: 1.18 units
One play tonight.
Once Herbert comes out, I trust the Rams depth and quarterback play a hell of a lot more.
Rams +3.5.
Let's get to the window.
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