Home Dog With the Points

Last night: 1-2, down 0.79 units

Tonight

One play, and it's a unit and a half. Northwestern opens its new stadium with an offense Chip Kelly has rebuilt in four weeks, against a Penn State team that just coached its way out of a 17-0 lead at home. We're taking the field goal with the home side.

Northwestern +3 (-124)

Penn State at Northwestern · Ryan Field · 8:00 PM ET

What Chip Kelly has done in Evanston

Over the past decade Northwestern's scoring offense ranked 121st in the country. Then the Wildcats hired Chip Kelly in December. He spent most of last season as the Raiders' offensive coordinator, and the year before that he called plays for Ohio State's national championship team.

The results showed up right away. Northwestern scored 75 points in its first two games, its most in a two-game stretch since 2017, and is averaging 32.7 points and 6.7 yards per play through three. Kelly's version here is not the old hurry-up. It leans on the run, play action and motion, and it keeps the offense on the field.

Aidan Chiles is the biggest beneficiary. He has completed 53 of 75 passes, 71 percent, for 807 yards and six touchdowns, and he has run for four more. He has not thrown an interception, and Northwestern has one turnover all season.

The real test came last Friday at Indiana. Northwestern was a 20.5-point underdog and lost by six, 29-23. Indiana won the yardage 472 to 325 and ran for 6.8 yards a carry, but Northwestern had the better passing game: Chiles went 22 of 29 for 293 yards, and the Wildcats averaged 8.6 net yards per pass attempt to Indiana's 6.5. The Wildcats are 3-0 against the spread and have covered by an average of more than 15 points.

Matt Campbell had a 17-0 lead and gave it away

Penn State led Wisconsin 17-0 at home last Saturday and lost 24-20 as a 9.5-point favorite. Wisconsin scored two touchdowns in the final 3:31.

The way it happened is the problem. Campbell sat on the ball to end the first half instead of trying to add to the lead. He called runs on third-and-long. The offense went three-and-out four straight times in the second half. To open the fourth quarter, up 20-10, he punted on fourth-and-1 from his own 38.

Campbell admitted this week they were "leaning into the flow of the game to make sure we didn't screw it up" instead of attacking. It isn't a new problem. At Iowa State his teams lost to Northern Iowa, to Ohio, and to Texas Tech while ranked 11th.

Penn State's offense without its top receiver

Through three games Penn State outscored Marshall, Temple and Buffalo 127-22, and Koby Howard was the engine: 12 catches, 344 yards and three touchdowns. He was hurt against Buffalo and is out again tonight, one of nine Nittany Lions ruled out.

Without him against Wisconsin, Penn State managed 233 yards at 3.6 per play. Rocco Becht completed 12 of 29 passes for 114 yards with an interception.

The number

Our number makes Penn State less than a field goal better on this field, and at least one widely followed set of power ratings has Northwestern as the favorite. We're getting the full three.

The spot

This is the first game at the new Ryan Field, on a Friday night, against a program Northwestern beat on the road a year ago.

The card

Good luck!