Saturday went 2-1. Minnesota covered, James Madison led Marshall 38-14 at halftime and that first half was over early, and Mississippi State got run over by Alabama. Plus 0.88 on the day.
Four NFL tickets today: two six-point teasers, a 49ers first half and a half-unit moneyline parlay.
Teaser: Jets +9.5 / Seahawks -1 (-115)
Sunday, Oct. 4 · Soldier Field, 1 p.m. ET · Lumen Field, 4:25 p.m. ET
Chicago is on a short week after Monday night and starting Tyson Bagent with Caleb Williams out again. Geno Smith, meanwhile, went 31 of 37 for 321 yards and three touchdowns in Detroit last week. The Jets are missing Breece Hall and A.D. Mitchell, so it's on Garrett Wilson and the passing game, and that's fine with me. Nine and a half is a lot of points for a backup quarterback to cover.
Seattle outgained Washington 437 to 258 last week, 28 first downs to 17, 6.8 yards a play to 4.0, and lost 33-31 because it turned it over three times, pick-six included. The box score says the Seahawks were the better team by a mile. Now they get a Chargers offense that has scored 14, 14 and 16.
Teaser: Cardinals +3.5 / Jaguars +8.5 (-115)
Sunday, Oct. 4 · MetLife Stadium, 1 p.m. ET · Paycor Stadium, 1 p.m. ET
Arizona put up 27 first downs and 30 points at San Francisco last week. The Giants are down to Jameis Winston, who's completing about half his passes. The Cardinals are the weaker half of this ticket, but at +3.5 they can lose by a field goal and we still cash.
The Jaguars leg is the one I like most. Jacksonville allows 12 points a game, beat New England 35-6 last week, and its only loss came on the road, 20-13 at Denver. Cincinnati's defense just let five different Steelers catch a pass of 20-plus yards.
49ers 1H -2.5 (-110) vs. Denver
Sunday, Oct. 4 · Levi's Stadium · 4:25 p.m. ET
San Francisco has led at halftime in all three games: 10-7, 14-6 and 17-6. Denver has trailed at halftime in all three: 14-7, 10-3 and 16-0. Add it up and the Broncos have been outscored 40-10 in first halves this season.
Yes, Denver came back from 16-0 down to beat the Rams last Sunday night, and it was great TV. It was also the third straight week the Broncos needed the second half to get going. Purdy threw for 297 yards and four touchdowns on 15 completions last week, and the Niners are scoring 32.7 a game. I'll take the first 30 minutes and let somebody else sweat the comeback.
Parlay: Texans ML / Vikings ML (-104)
Sunday, Oct. 4 · NRG Stadium, 1 p.m. ET · U.S. Bank Stadium, 4:05 p.m. ET
Houston is 0-3 because the offense has scored 18 a game. Nico Collins is back, and Dallas shows up with a defense that ranks 30th and is missing four starters. If the Texans can't score on this group, they can't score on anybody.
Miami has scored 36 points in three games, hasn't held a lead at any point this season and just lost De'Von Achane to a torn ACL. Minnesota won't light up the board without Justin Jefferson, and it doesn't need to. The Vikings' defense has allowed 22, 3 and 16.
Sunday's card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | Kick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teaser: Jets +9.5 / Seahawks -1 | -115 | 1.15u | 1.00u | 1 / 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Teaser: Cardinals +3.5 / Jaguars +8.5 | -115 | 1.15u | 1.00u | 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers 1H -2.5 | -110 | 1.10u | 1.00u | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Parlay: Texans ML / Vikings ML | -104 | 0.52u | 0.50u | 1 / 4:05 p.m. ET |
Total: 3.92 units of risk to win 3.50 units
Good luck!