Sunday was ugly. 0-4, minus 3.92 units, and I'm not going to dress it up. Both teasers lost a leg, and the Seahawks and Jaguars both came through, which is exactly what you want to hear when the other half of the ticket dies. The 49ers and Broncos went into halftime tied 3-3. Houston lost 34-30 to Dallas and sank the parlay before Minnesota even kicked off. The Jets lost by 11. The Cardinals lost by 12 to a Jameis Winston team, and that one stings.
One game tonight, four plays.
Atlanta +2 (-115) at New Orleans
Monday, Oct. 5 · Caesars Superdome · 8:15 p.m. ET
Atlanta with Michael Penix is a different team. Cooper Rush and Jack Strand started the first two games, threw five interceptions between them, and the Falcons scored 13 and 3, the 3 coming in a 34-3 home loss to Carolina. Penix came back last week, went 18 of 25 for 256 yards, and Atlanta walked into Lambeau and won 35-14.
The run game is lopsided both ways. Atlanta has the best run defense in the league through three games, 47.7 yards a game and 2.75 a carry. New Orleans allows 128.7 a game at 4.7 a carry, and it's missing linebackers Kaden Elliss and Anfernee Jennings tonight with Pete Werner questionable. If the Saints can't run, and nobody has run on Atlanta, Tyler Shough has to throw it 40 times to win.
Bijan Robinson Over 87 Rushing Yards (-115)
Monday, Oct. 5 · Caesars Superdome · 8:15 p.m. ET
The Saints have given up 165, 108 and 113 yards on the ground. They've been worst against zone runs, 4.9 a carry with a 63.5% success rate, and zone is where Bijan lives at 6.18 a carry. He ran 29 times for 194 yards at Green Bay last week. Now he gets a front missing two linebackers and Carl Granderson on the edge. You don't need me to tell you what Bijan does with a crease.
Drake London Over 87.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Monday, Oct. 5 · Caesars Superdome · 8:15 p.m. ET
With Rush and Strand throwing to him, London had 29 and 51 yards. With Penix, nine catches for 194. New Orleans plays cover-3 more than anyone in the league, 56% of its snaps, London averages more than six yards per route run against it, and Penix averages 9.19 yards an attempt against the same coverage since last season. The Saints have to bring a safety down to deal with Bijan. Somebody has to cover London when they do.
Chris Olave Over 84.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Monday, Oct. 5 · Caesars Superdome · 8:15 p.m. ET
Olave has 182, 86 and 107 yards this season, with at least eight catches every week. Atlanta plays cover-3 or cover-4 on 62% of its snaps, and he averages 3.43 yards per route against those looks. A.J. Terrell, the Falcons' best corner, is on IR. Teams have stopped trying to run on Atlanta and are throwing close to 41 times a game against it, and if we're right about the side, New Orleans is throwing late. Shough throws to Olave.
Monday's card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | Kick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta +2 | -115 | 1.15u | 1.00u | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Bijan Robinson Over 87 Rushing Yards | -115 | 0.58u | 0.50u | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Drake London Over 87.5 Receiving Yards | -115 | 0.58u | 0.50u | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Chris Olave Over 84.5 Receiving Yards | -120 | 0.60u | 0.50u | 8:15 p.m. ET |
Total: 2.91 units of risk to win 2.50 units