Home Dog in the Border War

"We've still got to play 10 more games after this one."

Lance Leipold this week on the Border War

Last week was rough, and there's no hiding from it. I've made a mental note for next year to ease into the season. Week 1 isn't what it used to be, and all the transfer portal movement, which I thought I had accounted for, didn't work out for us. The scores are on the picks page if you want to look. We spent the week going back through the process instead of chasing it, and the first card off that work is a small one.

Missouri visits Lawrence for the first time since 2005. The Tigers won 42-31 in Columbia last year after Kansas jumped out to a 15-point lead, and the market opened this one around Missouri -7. It has been coming toward Kansas all week and most of the board sits at -4.5 now. We found +5.5 at Fliff and took the extra point, and we're on the over at 51.5.

Kansas +5.5 (-125) vs. Missouri

Friday, Sept. 11 · David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium · 8 p.m. ET · Opened Missouri -7 · Board -4.5 · Bought at +5.5 on Fliff

Fliff was still holding +5.5 late Friday afternoon while most books had moved to 4.5, so we're a full point better than the market in a game we already think stays tight. The splits are moving the same way. Kansas has 45% of the spread tickets but 57% of the money, and on the moneyline it's 29% of the tickets and 58% of the money.

Andy Kotelnicki is back calling plays after two years at Penn State, and he finally has a quarterback who fits. Isaiah Marshall barely threw last year but ran for 160 yards on 15 carries when he got the chance, and in the opener he went 14 of 19 for 246 and two scores while Kansas piled up 613 yards with nine guys carrying it and seven catching passes.

The defenses are the bigger gap. Kansas ranked 10th nationally in returning defensive production. Missouri ranked 107th. DK McDonald is new as Kansas's coordinator, so there's plenty we don't know yet, but the Jayhawks had 11 tackles for loss and three sacks in the opener. Long Island isn't Missouri. The front should still be the strength of this team.

Austin Simmons was 17 of 19 for 252 yards and four touchdowns in the first half against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, but Eli Drinkwitz called the third quarter embarrassing and wasn't happy with the run game or special teams. Missouri also has four starters listed questionable: running back Ahmad Hardy, lineman Cayden Green, tight end Gavin Hoffman and receiver Joshua Brady. Chip Lindsey is calling plays for the first time and the defense is replacing a lot.

The market has priced Missouri as the better team all week, but all anyone has seen is two FCS openers. Leipold is 9-4-1 against the spread as a home dog at Kansas and 19-7-1 in that spot for his career.

Missouri at Kansas Over 51.5 (-120)

Friday, Sept. 11 · Board 51.5 · Bought at 51.5 on Fliff

Both quarterbacks can make something out of a broken play, and both coordinators can manufacture explosives. Simmons threw four touchdowns in a half last week. Marshall threw for 246 in his first start. Missouri finished its opener with 562 yards at 7.2 a play. Kansas had 613.

The defenses help the over more than they hurt it. Kansas brings a lot back but was tied for 96th in yards per play allowed last year and gave up almost 29 a game to FBS opponents. Missouri's defense was excellent last year and most of that production is gone. Weather is a non-factor: warm, clear, light wind. Covers projects a combined 53.

Missouri's run game was shaky, Hardy's status matters, and while the public is heavy on the over, the money is closer to even. If both quarterbacks play the way they did last week, there are enough possessions and enough explosives here to get into the mid-50s.

What we passed

Rutgers +3.5 at Boston College was the closest call. The money was on Rutgers, 3.5 is better than the 3 most books have, and BC just let Cincinnati run for 254. But AJ Surace is making the first start of his career on the road, on Red Bandanna night in Chestnut Hill, with Greg Schiano coming off a home loss to UMass. No way in hell I'm taking that dog.

Friday's card

Total: 2.45 units of risk to win 2.00 units

Rock Chalk! Good luck tonight.