Catching Points With Bill

"We're heading into a real hostile environment down there."

Bill Belichick this week on Clemson

If you grew up in New England in the 2000s like I did, seeing Bill Belichick catching points still does something to you. It didn't happen often back then, and when it did, you didn't ask many questions. Feb. 3, 2002 paid for a lot of things in my life. So yes, I'm biased, and I'll tell you that up front. I also think this number is wrong.

North Carolina goes into Death Valley today for the ACC opener. Clemson opened close to a touchdown favorite and the number has been chopped down all week. We've got three more plays behind it, two of them at noon, so let's get into it.

North Carolina +3.5 (-135) at Clemson

Saturday, Sept. 19 · Memorial Stadium · Noon ET · Opened Clemson -6 · Board -3 · Bought +3.5 on Fliff

What has Clemson done to deserve laying points here? The Tigers are 1-1 and haven't covered. Last week they beat Georgia Southern 22-7 on five Nolan Hauser field goals. Five. Christopher Vizzina left that game with an injury to his non-throwing arm, Tait Reynolds came in and threw for 178 yards, and Dabo Swinney is going with Reynolds today. Belichick called him "a really athletic kid," which is exactly what Bill says before spending the week figuring out how to make a kid stand in the pocket and beat him.

Carolina has allowed 13 points in two games. They beat TCU 15-10 in Ireland as a touchdown dog, then handled East Tennessee State 35-3, and both games stayed well under the total. Billy Edwards Jr. hasn't been spectacular and hasn't needed to be. He's gone over 200 yards in both games, both in the rain, and he's taking care of the football. That's the formula. Play defense, don't turn it over, put a first-time starter in third-and-long all afternoon and see if he can beat you in a game totaled in the mid-40s.

There are things I don't love. It's Carolina's first true road game. They're down three receivers and their kicker, which matters in a game I think comes down to a field goal. Clemson also beat them 38-10 last year in Chapel Hill. But this isn't last year's Carolina defense, and in a game where I don't expect many points, +3.5 gives us a lot of ways to cash. Clemson can win by a field goal and we're fine. That's why we paid -135 for the hook instead of taking the flat 3.

Texas State -2.5 (-123) vs. North Texas

Saturday, Sept. 19 · UFCU Stadium · Noon ET · Board -3 · Bought -2.5 on BetOnline

I know the first reaction. Texas State is 0-2 and giving up 45 a game. Why the hell are they favored? That's part of why I like it. North Texas just beat UNLV 44-6 and Texas State is still laying points. The Bobcats have played a much tougher schedule, and North Texas has played one road game, a 52-16 loss at Indiana. This also isn't last year's North Texas offense. Drew Mestemaker is gone, Eric Morris is gone, and this team is averaging more than nine penalties a game. The market is around Texas State -3. We bought the half point at BetOnline. With how bad this defense has been I'm sure they'll make us sweat, but a field goal win is enough.

Georgia at Arkansas Over 54 (-115)

Saturday, Sept. 19 · Razorback Stadium · Noon ET · Board 54.5 · Bought 54 on Fliff

Georgia has scored 63 and 70 in its first two games. Gunner Stockton has been on the field for 11 drives, and all 11 ended in touchdowns. He's 28 of 32 for 436 yards and eight scores. Now he gets an Arkansas defense that just gave up 43 at Utah and sits 96th nationally in yards per play allowed.

Georgia is laying more than three touchdowns, so the Bulldogs getting into the 40s on their own is in play. If that happens we need two touchdowns from Arkansas. KJ Jackson was ugly last week at 14 of 34, but Arkansas is home and should be playing from behind most of the second half, and Kirby Smart has emptied the bench in both blowouts this year. Western Kentucky scored 20 because of it. Georgia does most of the work and Arkansas finds enough late to get us there.

Louisville -1.5 (-120) vs. SMU

Saturday, Sept. 19 · L&N Stadium · 3:30 p.m. ET · Board -2 · Bought -1.5 on Fliff

This might be the best game on the board. SMU is averaging 566 yards a game and Louisville is at 552. Both offenses are top 10 nationally and both quarterbacks can hurt you with their legs.

If you remember SMU beating Louisville 38-6 last November, I'm not putting much into it. Louisville played that game without its starting quarterback and its top two running backs, and even Rhett Lashlee called it an outlier this week. This Louisville team took No. 9 Ole Miss to the end in a 41-38 loss, then put 59 on Villanova. Lincoln Kienholz has thrown for 639 yards and somehow also leads the team in rushing, and Clev Lubin might be the best defensive player on the field. At -1.5 we're not asking for much. Win the game at home and we cash.

Saturday's card

Total: 4.93 units of risk to win 4.00 units

We may add plays later today, so keep an eye on @C_Boogie33 on X for anything that hits the card.

In Bill we trust. Best of luck today