Penix Is Back and We're Catching Points at Lambeau

"I would bet that their offense is going to look a little bit different Thursday night."

Matt LaFleur this week on Atlanta with Michael Penix Jr. back

When the other team's head coach says "I would bet," I'm listening. LaFleur was probably being polite about a quarterback coming off a torn ACL, but he's right. Atlanta's offense should look a lot different tonight, and that's a big reason we're on the Falcons.

We have three plays tonight: Atlanta plus the points and two props.

Falcons +5.5 (-116) at Packers

Thursday, Sept. 24 · Lambeau Field · 8:15 p.m. ET · Opened GB -7 · Board -4.5 · Bought +5.5 on Polymarket

Atlanta's offense has been brutal through two games. The Falcons haven't run a single play inside the opponent's 20. The last team to do that through two games was the 2008 Rams, who finished 2-14. They're averaging 8 points a game, rank last in the league at 123.5 passing yards a game, and Cooper Rush posted QBRs of 2.6 and 5.2 while he and Jack Strand combined for five interceptions. Last week's 34-3 loss to Carolina had five turnovers in it. Hard to win any game doing that, never mind cover.

But those were the backups. Penix is back tonight for the first time since Nov. 16, and I'll take a real quarterback plus 5.5 against this Green Bay team.

The Packers are 1-1 and 0-2 against the spread. They needed 208 return yards from Skyy Moore and overtime to beat the Jets 20-17 on Sunday, in a game where New York held the ball for 37:40 and outgained them 285-199. Green Bay went 1 for 9 on third down and now ranks last in the NFL at 19.1%. They lead the league with 26 penalties for 231 yards. And now the line is beat up: Aaron Banks is out at left guard, and Zach Bako-Bewele tore his patellar tendon Sunday and is done for the year at right tackle. Josh Jacobs is still on the commissioner's exempt list and Micah Parsons is still working back from the ACL.

This is my favorite part of the matchup. Green Bay ranks dead last in pass protection win rate, and that was before losing two starters up front. Atlanta's interior defensive line leads the league in pressures, and the Packers are throwing a new left guard out there on a short week. Za'Darius Smith goes back into Lambeau too. He played there from 2019 through 2021 and already has 2.5 sacks for Atlanta this year. I'm guessing he'll be motivated. Atlanta's defense held Pittsburgh to 264 yards in Week 1. The defense was never the problem.

Penix will be rusty; he hasn't played in 10 months. Green Bay has also won 13 straight home openers, so I understand the other side. But teams playing Thursday after going to overtime on Sunday are 7-28 against the spread since 2000, and this one has a short week, extra snaps and injuries on top of it. This opened around a touchdown and most of the market sits at 4.5. We have 5.5. Both teams are bottom three in the league on third down, which usually means punts, field position and fewer possessions, and in that kind of game I want the extra point.

Drake London Over 5.5 Receptions (+105)

Thursday, Sept. 24 · Lambeau Field · 8:15 p.m. ET · Bought at +105 on Polymarket

London has six catches through two games, two against Pittsburgh and four against Carolina on 10 total targets. With Penix it's a different player. In 12 games together, London averaged around 11 targets and caught at least six passes in eight of them. This number is priced off the Rush and Strand games, not the Penix ones.

Penix looks for London, and there isn't much else in this room right now. Jahan Dotson, Zachariah Branch and Olamide Zaccheaus have four catches combined. Green Bay plays two-high safeties about two-thirds of the time, one of the highest rates in football, and that's a coverage London has done well against. The Packers are also allowing 2.85 yards a carry, second-best in the league, so Atlanta isn't going to let Bijan Robinson carry the offense all night. They'll have to throw, and if Green Bay gets ahead, that only helps. We got +105. This is around -108 most places now.

Kaleb Johnson Under 39.5 Rushing Yards (-117)

Thursday, Sept. 24 · Lambeau Field · 8:15 p.m. ET · Bought at 39.5 on Polymarket

Green Bay is averaging 64.5 rushing yards a game, worst in the NFL, at 3.3 a carry. Their longest run through two games is 14 yards, and no Packers back has topped 37 in a game. MarShawn Lloyd had 13 carries for 37 against Minnesota, Johnson had eight for 32 against the Jets, and Chris Brooks has mixed in both weeks.

Johnson is expected to get the first crack at the lead role tonight after Lloyd fumbled last week and sat. The market reacted and bet this from 33.5 up to where it is now, which is fine with me. Even if Johnson gets the job, he needs around 12 carries at Green Bay's current efficiency just to reach 40, and he's running behind a line missing two starters against a defense that ranks first in rushing yards allowed and third at 2.9 a carry. Brooks should stay on the field on passing downs for his protection, so Johnson's work is mostly early downs. We're a yard above most of the market at 39.5.

Tonight's card

Total: 2.23 units of risk to win 2.00 units

I'll be on @C_Boogie33 tonight if we add anything or anything changes. Best of luck as always.