It took me a year and a half to get over Travis Hunter winning the Heisman over Ashton Jeanty. I had Jeanty at close to 100-1, and the ticket died when the race turned into a popularity contest and Coach Prime let Hunter pad his numbers against bad teams.
I'm over it. Mostly.
Tonight we're backing Coach Prime and the Buffs on the road in Atlanta.
Georgia Tech starts Alberto Mendoza, younger brother of Fernando Mendoza, who won last year's Heisman and earned it. Alberto's job is replacing Haynes King, one of the best quarterbacks the program has ever had, and King was the whole difference when these teams met last season. Georgia Tech won 27-20 in Boulder and ran for 320 yards. King had 156 of them, scored three touchdowns and iced the game with a 45-yard run with just over a minute left.
Haynes King ain't walking through that door tonight. That matters.
Week 1 gives us five days of college football. We're opening with one bet.
Colorado +7 (-128) at Georgia Tech
Thursday, Sept. 3 · Bobby Dodd Stadium · 8 p.m. ET · Opened: Georgia Tech -7 · Current: Georgia Tech -6.5 (as of Thursday afternoon)
Colorado went 3-9 last year, and that record is the first thing anyone sees when they pull up this game. It's also the wrong thing to look at, because this is not the same roster.
The Buffs rebuilt through the portal and, more to the point, they added players who have already produced at this level rather than bodies with upside. The defensive front is where it shows.
Santana Hopper arrives from Tulane after starting 13 games with 10.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, giving Colorado an interior lineman who lives in the backfield. Balansama Kamara comes off the edge from Albany, where he put up 67 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. And Gideon Lampron may be the biggest addition of all: a captain at Bowling Green, 119 tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, one of the most productive linebackers in the country. He is precisely the player you want in the middle against an offense that is going to try to run first.
Georgia Tech still has Justice Haynes, and he's a problem. But defending a good running back is a different job than defending Haynes King, where every run concept came with the threat of the quarterback keeping it, scrambling or turning a busted play into a huge gain. Colorado's front seven has more experience and more proven production than it did a year ago. If they slow the run and force Mendoza into obvious passing downs, the Buffs keep this close and have a real chance to win outright.
Brennan Marion changes the offense
Colorado has questions on that side too. Julian Lewis takes over at quarterback at 18 years old. But the man calling plays for him is the reason I'm not worried about it.
Brennan Marion created the Go-Go offense and has scored everywhere he's run it. Tempo, multiple backs, motion, misdirection and RPO concepts, all designed to stress a defense before the snap. At UNLV in 2023 his offense averaged 34.4 points, converted nearly half its third downs and topped 40 points six times. In 2024 it got better: 36.2 points per game, 14th nationally, and more than 250 rushing yards a game. Then he took a 3-9 Sacramento State team, went 7-5 in his first year as a head coach and averaged nearly 34 a game doing it.
Now he's back to calling plays full time.
The market moved the wrong way for the public
Georgia Tech opened -7 and sits at -6.5 at most books. On its own that's nothing. What makes it worth noting is who's betting what.
At DraftKings, Georgia Tech has drawn roughly three of every four bets and a similar share of the money. With that kind of lean, the number should be drifting toward -7.5. Instead it went the other direction. When the public is stacked on one side and the line moves against them, the money that moves numbers is usually on the other side.
The one we passed on
The other Thursday game we looked at was Minnesota-Eastern Illinois over 51.5.
Minnesota can do most of the work by itself. Drake Lindsey is back after 2,382 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions last season, with plenty of continuity around him. Eastern Illinois already has a game in, and Charles Kellom ran for 171 yards and three touchdowns on 19 carries against Murray State last week.
The problem is the other half of the total. Eastern Illinois threw for 101 yards in that game and is far more comfortable running it, which is not the offense you want on the wrong side of an over. Minnesota could hang 60 on an FCS team; it won 66-0 last year with 59 by halftime, and 48-0 the year before. It could also go up four touchdowns and spend the second half running clock and getting backups reps. At that point you're betting on how long P.J. Fleck wants to keep scoring, not on the matchup. Pass.
Tonight's card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | Kick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado +7 (BetOnline) | -128 | 1.28u | 1.00u | 8 p.m. ET |
Result: Colorado won outright, 14-13. Cover. +1.00u.
Georgia Tech ran for 51 yards. Without Haynes King, the run game we bet against never showed up, and Colorado's rebuilt front seven held the Jackets to 13. Julian Lewis's only touchdown pass was the difference.
Friday has a handful of games we're still working through. Saturday is the full board.