Eleven games on Thursday. We bet one, and it cashed outright. We grade all eleven anyway, because the box scores are where next week's numbers come from.
The Ticket
| Play | Odds | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado +7 | -128 | W | +1.00u |
Colorado +7 won as a straight upset, 14-13, and it won the way we said it would. Georgia Tech ran for 51 yards. Justice Haynes had 64 of them on 19 carries, and without Haynes King keeping the ball on the read, the run game never threatened. Colorado ran for 183, did not turn it over, and Julian Lewis's only touchdown pass was the difference. The number was never in play.
One thing we got wrong: we passed on Minnesota-Eastern Illinois over 51.5 because we thought Minnesota would take its foot off the gas. It did not. 59-7, 66 points, the over by a mile. The pass followed our rules and the rules stay, but the read on the second half was wrong and it goes on the record as a miss.
All Eleven, Graded
Yards and rushing yards are away-home. Spreads and totals graded against our closing numbers.
| Game | Yards | Rush | Result | The box says |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado 14 @ Georgia Tech 13 | 307-288 | 183-51 | Colorado +6.5 covered (won outright); under 51.5 | Our play. Georgia Tech ran for 51 yards. Justice Haynes got 64 on 19 carries and nobody else did anything on the ground without the King keeper threat. Colorado ran for 183, never turned it over, and Julian Lewis's lone touchdown pass was enough. |
| UMass 37 @ Rutgers 21 | 397-349 | 200-30 | UMass +29 covered (won outright); over 52.5 | The upset of the night. Rutgers ran for 30 yards and Dylan Lonergan threw three interceptions. William Watson went 19 of 22 for three touchdowns for UMass and the Minutemen ran for 200 on a Big Ten defense. Not a fluke box. |
| UAB 23 @ Illinois 42 | 413-332 | 194-150 | UAB +26.5 covered; over 54.5 | Illinois won by 19 and got outgained by 81. UAB held the ball for 41 minutes and converted 10 of 19 third downs. Katin Houser won on efficiency, 13 of 17 with three scores, not volume. The number was too big. |
| Akron 16 @ Wake Forest 38 | 305-559 | 149-203 | Akron +27 covered; over 50.5 | Gio Lopez threw for 350 and three touchdowns and Carlos Hernandez caught five for 165. That is a real offense. Akron's 305 yards is why 27 did not cover. |
| EIU 7 @ Minnesota 59 | 110-495 | 51-147 | Minnesota -42.5 covered; over 51.5 | The over we passed. Drake Lindsey went 19 of 24 for 264, Darius Taylor scored three times, and Minnesota went 10 of 15 on third down. Eastern Illinois had 110 yards and still found seven. This time Fleck did not stop. |
| Idaho 14 @ Utah 66 | 225-633 | 106-364 | Utah -36.5 covered; over 59.5 | 633 yards, 364 on the ground, three touchdown passes from Devon Dampier on 18 attempts. Utah's offense looks like the real thing. |
| Ark-Pine Bluff 14 @ Missouri 54 | 198-562 | 89-205 | APB +55 covered; over 61.5 | Austin Simmons went 17 of 19 for 252 and four scores and Missouri still did not cover a 55-point line. This is why we cap spreads at 17. |
| Bethune-Cookman 6 @ UCF 73 | 181-560 | 107-360 | UCF -42 covered; over 58.5 | 360 rushing yards. Duke Watson ran seven times for 110. The score says more about a defense that could not stop the run than about UCF. |
| West Georgia 0 @ Kennesaw State 47 | 160-508 | 49-297 | Kennesaw -21.5 covered; under 51.5 | West Georgia went 0 for 12 on third down. A shutout that still went under. |
| Merrimack 7 @ Delaware 42 | 244-547 | 48-112 | Delaware -31.5 covered; under 55.5 | Nick Minicucci threw for 330. Delaware threw for 435 as a team and ran for 112. The run game is what to watch in Conference USA. |
| Albany 17 @ Buffalo 21 | 276-340 | 72-151 | Albany +17.5 covered; under 47.5 | The ugly one. Buffalo needed 47 pass attempts to beat an FCS team by four. That box will follow the Bulls into MAC play. |
What Thursday Taught Us
Dogs went 6-4 against the spread, and the big favorites mostly did not cover. UAB +26.5, Akron +27, Arkansas-Pine Bluff +55, Albany +17.5 and UMass +29 all cashed. The only giant favorites that covered were the ones that ran for 300 yards. That is two weeks now of the same pattern: when the number is enormous and the favorite is not a dominant rushing team, the dog is live.
Overs went 7-4. The unders were the games where an FCS offense could not function at all: West Georgia went 0 for 12 on third down, Merrimack ran for 48, Albany ran for 72. Plus our Colorado game.
UMass is the team to reprice. Two hundred rushing yards, zero turnovers and a 19-of-22 night from William Watson against a Power Four defense is not a fluke box. On the other side, Rutgers ran for 30 yards and threw three picks. The Big Ten has a problem in Piscataway and the market has not fully caught up yet.
Buffalo and Illinois are the quiet downgrades. Buffalo needed 47 pass attempts to beat Albany by four. Illinois beat UAB by 19 and got outgained doing it. Both numbers will look too big next week.
Utah and Minnesota looked like what they were supposed to be. Utah put up 633 yards with three touchdown passes on 18 attempts. Minnesota went 10 of 15 on third down and scored 59. Neither result changes a number much, but both confirm the offense is real.
Carry-Forward
Two weeks in, the same lessons keep showing up. The biggest spreads on the board are the ones the market prices worst. Roster quality on paper does not decide games by itself, but a roster that cannot run the ball cannot cover a big number. And the second half of a blowout is the coach's decision, not the matchup's, which is why we are not betting 40-point totals either direction.
Friday's card is up. Saturday is the full board.